Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Netflix: The Gift of Prophecy

On September 11, 2011 - just as Netflix shares dropped from $250 to $80 in two months - I wrote my blog post What Happens with Netflix? I said
Success is not rooted in the technology. Success is rooted in the people desires to pay for entertainment delivered in their homes. Once the streaming technology has been developed, and here Netflix has a big merit, it becomes like generic drug. Anybody can use it at lower and lower costs. It is no longer a differentiator. The content and pricing of the content are the differentiators now.
I know my inspiration come from above, because I am human. I like to point this out as many people on the Valley seem to have forgotten this. What I like about Netflix, is that they are different.
As Netflix likes to quote, there is no certitude, there are only opportunities Netflix will react. I hope with humility, as without humility, one loses the gift of prophecy
If we have the The House of Cards, season 2 starting  February 14, is because the Netflix founder, Reed Hastings who was humbled by that September 2011 stock free fall. He hired Kelly Bennett as CMO from Warner Bros in 2012.

Neil Hunt, Chief Product Officer changed strategy. After developing their streaming technology, they de-emphasized Netflix as leading engineering company.

This is what Fortune magazine wrote in January 2013:
 It's only logical that Netflix will lose its dominance over the video-streaming business. It's been slowly happening for a couple of years. Competitors have been piling in. Netflix is losing some big providers of movies and TV and paying more to the ones it lands or retains. That situation is likely to continue as more licenses come up for renewal.
Contradicting Fortune prediction, Netflix is now a leading original content provider, because this what their paying customers want. They don't care about the technology. The stock price of Netflix is today over $430.
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